新兴市场的情况大为不同。很多新型经济体于2009年恢复到危机前的产出水平。产能水平开始起限制作用,通胀开始上升。居民的通胀预期也在增长。中国通胀已达十多年来最高水平出现工资上涨压力的迹象。更高工资本身并不是件坏事,尤其是在中国这样一个多年工资增长赶不上生产力增长的国家。但宽松的货币状况和过热的经济意味着价格和工资彼此追赶螺旋上升时,危险就来了。
To prevent that, central bankers have been fighting back with higher interest rates andhigher reserve requirements. The Brazilian and Indian central banks raised rates last month;in total, they have now hiked their policy rates by 2.5 and 1.75 percentage pointsrespectively. China s central bank recently raised reserve requirements for the seventh timein a year.
为了控制工资价格螺旋上升,央行的银行家们一直通过加息和上调准备金率予以回击。上月巴西和印度央行上调利率;现在他们已经分别上调2.5个百分点和1.75个百分点。中国央行最近进行了年内第七次上调准备金率。
For all that, monetary conditions remain extraordinarily loose. According to JPMorgan Chase,real policy rates in emerging economiesthe official interest rate minus coreconsumer-price inflationare at their lowest level since 2000. Core consumer-priceinflation remains below its 2008 levels. Butvigilance is needed. A continuation of booming growth and cheap money will cause troublein the end.
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