西班牙可能仍可抵挡纾困计划一段时间,它还有一些现金并能发行短期债券。欧元区也有临时救助资金,它可以把首批贷款借给西班牙政府以对其银行进行重组。但即使西班牙能安然度过这个夏天,市场表明其在年底依然需要一次全面纾困。
That would be a nightmare, and not just for Spain. The Spanish government must borrowEURO385 billion until the end of 2014 to cover its budget deficit and other needs such asbond redemptions, according to economists at Credit Suisse. Even if the IMF chips in a thirdas in previous bail-outs, European lenders would have to find EURO250 billion or so. Theyhave already committed EURO100 billion to rescuing Spanish banks, so for otheremergencies they would have only EURO150 billion of the EURO500 billion now in theirrescue kitties.
这将是一场噩梦,不仅仅对于西班牙来说。瑞士信贷的经济学家们称,在2014年底之前,西班牙政府必须借入3850亿欧元来填补其预算赤字以及满足其它一些需要,如债务偿还。即使国际货币基金组织能和之前的纾困中一样提供三分之一救助资金,欧洲领导人也依然需要筹集2500亿欧元左右。他们已经承诺用1000亿欧元来拯救西班牙银行,那么一旦出现其它状况,5000亿欧元的救助资金中他们便只剩1500亿欧元来应对。
The course of events is eerily similar to what happened a year ago. Then European leadersappeared to have secured their summer holidays with a breakthrough summit. But thingssoon fell apart. Nerves about Italy and Spain were calmed only when the European CentralBank started buying their bonds. The central bank was never keen on this and it hasnot been buying bonds for several months. Even if the ECB were to resume purchases theymight be less effective than before, because its refusal to share in the pain of the Greek debtrestructuring in March frightened bondholders elsewhere.
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