不同的是,在这本平实而详细的书中,17位撰稿人没有任何一位作出预言般的警告。但是这些专家都感觉前景的黯淡。当思考未来愿景时,这些来自各个行业的专家都传达大量令人沮丧的事实和预测。
Stephen Cohen, a well-respected observer of Pakistani politics at the Brookings Institution,sets the tone by observing how Pakistanis lack even a shared idea of their nation. They areincreasingly divided between the urban and rural, the educated and illiterate, and bycompeting religious strands. The new normal is abnormal, he observes.
巴基斯坦布鲁金斯研究所的备受尊崇的政治家斯蒂芬柯恩,通过观察巴基斯坦人如何缺少意见交流,以此定下本书基调。城市和乡村,高等学历者和文盲之间的分化日益严重,宗教团体竞争日益激烈。正常之中有些反常 斯蒂芬柯恩说。
The country is threatened by various long-term trends. Of Pakistan s 185m people, two-thirdsare younger than 30 years old. Only the population of Yemenhardly a model ofstabilityis more youthful. One poll taken among such youngsters and cited in the booksuggests that three-quarters might emigrate if given the chance. Also many of the younghold extreme religious views, unleashed by the zealous regime of Zia ul Haq in the 1980s.
这个国家正收到各种长期流行趋势的威胁。巴基斯坦的18.5亿人口,2/3的人口都未满30岁。只有也门的人口,因其流动性小,人口年轻化更严重。通过对年轻人的民意调查,显示3/4的年轻人如果给予机会就会搬迁。本书也引用这次调查结果。也有很多热衷于穆罕默德齐亚哈克政权持的年轻人被释放,他们持有极端宗教主义观念。
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