监管机构和银行家似乎承认了巴塞尔2.5 问题的复杂性。交易性资产的风险现在必须分解成五个桶:风险值,估计平均每个交易日的可能损失;极限风险值;再加上三个不同类别的信用风险值,从单个信贷风险到抵押贷款依次排列。交易员都觉得很困惑。对于一些银行而言,开发风险模型并获得通过成本太高了:更复杂的业务将被停止。这将使一些想让银行更加令人厌烦的人非常满意。
But unintended consequences will doubtless follow. Useful products may become lesstradable. Trading of riskier products could migrate to unregulated entities. Banks may betempted into new forms of regulatory arbitrage, by juggling assets between their tradingbook and their banking book. Worst of all, perhaps, is the increased risk of back-officebungling because of the extra complexity.
但是这无疑将招致意外的后果。实用的产品交易量会减少。风险产品的交易可能转移至不受监管的实体。银行可能会被交易账户和银行账户之间变换的资产诱惑,进入一套新的监管套利模式。最坏的情况可能是由于额外的复杂性造成的后台拙劣的工作风险增加 。
Regulators recognise this risk. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which drew upthe rules and is also responsible for the full Basel 3 regime that will come into force in 2019,is still conducting what it calls a fundamental review of capital rules for banks tradingbooks. Publication is not expected before March. Those sore heads will not soon clear.
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