这就是伊恩布雷默在他新著《各自为战》中所预言的世界。像巴西和土耳其这样的国家想要在全球政治中扮演更重要的角色。但是他们想要避免领导全球所必须承担的风险和负担。理想主义的观念认为,一个多元化的组织网络和法律可以带来秩序,让那些不驯服的国家服从。但是随着美国没有能力或者不愿意承担全球领导的角色,而中国目前还没有做好准备承担责任,没有一个国家可以来强制执行这些规则。
In the 1960s President Lyndon Johnson could divert a fifth of America s wheat crop toalleviate starvation in India. That could not happen now, when biofuels are aggravatingfood shortages and exporters hoard supplies for their own people. Global warming, nuclearproliferation and internet regulation are all harder to address, with the G7 and G20supplanted by what the author calls the G-Zero.
20世纪60年代,总统林登约翰逊可以将美国小麦产量的五分之一用于缓解印度的饥荒。现在这根本不可能发生,因为生物燃料的发展正在造成并加剧粮食短缺现象,而且出口商们正为了他们自己的人民储存粮食。随着G7和G20被被作者称为G-0的世界所代替,全球变暖、核扩散以及网络管理等都将是更难处理的问题。
Mr Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy, specialises in bigthoughts. His previous books tackled the path that developing countries travel fromautocracy to democracy, and the growth of state-sponsored capitalism. Every Nation ForItself enters a more crowded field. Innumerable books and essays have already plumbed theconsequences of America s loss, or possible loss, of global leadership, with the best providingeither fresh insight or original reporting. Unfortunately, Every Nation For Itself doesneither. It devotes endless pages to describing disparate arenas of global conflict, fromcyberspace to water shortages, but these are largely a rehash of headlines and conventionalwisdom. Their only purpose is to provide Mr Bremmer with repeated opportunities to assertthat in a G-Zero world such conflicts can no longer be solved from above.
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