计算实际汇率,你需要每个国家的物价指标。许多经济学家用的是消费价格指数。但是消费价格指数包含了许多无法跨境交易的商品和服务。我们实际汇率的衡量标准关注的是单位劳动力成本,更加直接的衡量竞争力:每件产品的劳动力价格。这些价格在工资上涨或生产率下降时就会上涨。根据劳动统计局的数据,自2005年第一季度以来,美国制造业的单位劳动力成本增加不到4%。根据我们的统计,中国工业的单位劳动力成本同期增加了25%。
Those estimates are rough and ready. There are no official statistics on Chinas unit labourcosts. Our calculations are based on the value-added in industry and the wage bill of urban factories, which does not count the town andvillage enterprises that employ over two-thirds of Chinas metal-bashers. But the urbanplants probably churn out a big share of the goodies that America buys.
这些都是大致的估算。中国的单位劳动力成本并没有官方统计。我们的估算是基于工业的增值和城市工厂的工资,这并不包括雇佣逾三分之二中国金属铸造工人的乡镇企业。但是城市工厂可能生产了美国购买的大部分产品。
The combination of a 24% rise in the Yuan against the dollar and a 21% increase in Chineseunit labour costs, relative to Americas, explains the steep appreciation shown in the chart.The Yuan may well still be undervalued but our index suggests American manufacturingshould have less to fear from Chinese competition than it did five years ago. Until June 2009appreciation was largely because of the stronger Yuan. Since then it is largely becauseChinas unit labour costs have grown much faster than Americas. Employers in Chinascoastal factories have suffered labour shortages and strikes. Americas factories havereported strong productivity gains as they have wrung more out of the workers thatsurvived the recession .
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