The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to globalgrowth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequentexplanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. Inrecent months the worlds big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expandedquantitative easing or promised to keep rates low for longer.This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets,especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than theenactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, BenBernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE . Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a risein oil inventoriesexactly the opposite of what has happened.
高油价的源头至关重要。比如,像供应异动对全球经济造成的危害就比需求走强型油价攀升大。对于目前的上涨,一个常被用到的解释就是央行的慷慨救助推升了油价。在近几个月里,全球各大央行不是在注入流动性,增加量化宽松,就是在保证延长保持低利率的期限。就像争论的那样,廉价资金的涌入早把投资者推到了硬资产那边,特别是石油那里。不过因为市场是有预测性的,所以是量化宽松的宣布提升了油价,而不是实施。确实,上个月美联储主席本伯南克宣布没有下一轮量化宽松,是让市场很失望的。另外,如果价格上涨是由投机者造成的,你将会看到原油库存的增加这完全与事实背道而驰。
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