Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, whichin turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. Therecent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: aeuro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and Americasrecovery seems on stronger ground.
各大央行可能会通过提升全球增长预期来直接影响油价,而预期增长也会反过来支撑原油需求的预期。有详细的证据支持该论点。最近的油价上升是伴随着对全球经济过分乐观的:欧元区的大灾变和中国经济的硬着陆的都不太可能了,而且美国的复苏看起来也在稳步增强。
But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver ofdearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than1m barrels a day of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from apipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, haveknocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil istemporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a paymentdispute with China.
不过,些许的美好增长前景只是故事的一部分。油老大更为重要的驱动力在于供应缺损。在近几个月里,原油市场每天可能总共损失一百万桶。从与南苏丹的管道纠纷到北海的机械故障,各种各样的非伊朗性问题每天就能搞砸70万桶供应。其余的每天50多万桶伊朗原油就因为欧盟的处罚和与中国的支付纠纷,暂时的离开了市场。
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