The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. Theextent of OPECs spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, anear-record high . And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions ifIran were ever to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17mbarrels of oil pass every day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure wouldimply a disruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, forinstance, involved less than 5m b/d.
零散供给的缓冲作用挺弱的。石油类股票价格在发达国家创五年内新低,石油输出国组织OPEC的备用生产能力也不确定,沙特阿拉伯现在每天都抽1千万桶,也创了近期新高。如果伊朗要封锁霍尔木兹海峡进行报复,这就是对供给损毁相当大的威胁,每天有一千七百万原油通过霍尔木兹海峡,占全球供给的20%多。即使是短暂封锁造成的供应缩减也会使以前的石油危机相形见绌,例如,1973年阿拉伯的原油禁运每天才不到5百万桶。
Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckonsthat the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around $118 a barrel.He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iranimprove, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to $120.
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