区分这些种类繁多的因素是不容易的,但高盛的杰佛里库瑞Jeffrey Currie猜测,供求的基本面就把油价推升到了每桶118美元。他认为剩下的那些涨幅归根于对于伊朗的恐惧。如果这样,就应该改善与伊朗的关系,油价就能下降几美元,但也在120美元左右。
Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb isthat a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in thefirst year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, whotend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvementselsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects forglobal growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.
从全球角度来看,油价上涨带来的危害可能要小点。根据经验,油价持续上升10%在第一年会削掉全球增长的0.2%,这主要是因为油老大把收益从消费者转移到了生产者,而生产者倾向于消费少点。对于现在,任何影响几乎都超过了其他方面的改善,尤其在欧债危机缓解上面。撇开油老大,全球经济前景还是比年初时候的好一些。
But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a netimporter which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a $10 increase in oil prices knocks around 0.2% off output in the firstyear and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that iswidely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.
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