不过,油价的影响对每个国家经济增长和通货膨胀的影响都是不一样的。美国,作为一个净输入国对油品征税较轻,一般规则是油价上升10美元第一年的产出减少0.2%,第二年减少0.5%。这将令一个今年预期增长超过2%的经济体发展放缓,但不会倾覆。
There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil thanin recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Risingemployment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And Americaseconomy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oilconsumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.
无论如何,美国比过去几年对油老大都更有抗逆性是有一些原因的。现在的油价蹿升比11年和08年的都弱。美国经济不再是那么能源集中型的了,而且对进口的依赖也更小了。在过去的两年里,原油消耗减小了,但GDP依然增长。
Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports arewell below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oilstays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas priceshave plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heatingunusually low. In January the share of consumers spending on energy products was thesecond-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spikingoil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.
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