Bond markets are likely to be forgiving, given the scale of troubles elsewhere. But a failure tohit its fiscal targets would harm the coalition governments credibility. And there is a morepressing worry. Britains strong links with the wretched euro zone mean that its economy isbeing dragged into continent-wide recession . Some Conservative politicians seem tobelieve that Britain stands apart from the euro disaster because it has its own currency. Infact, the economy is increasingly dependent on exports, two-fifths of which are shipped to theeuro zone. There is little spending power at home: consumers are still carrying a lot of debtwhile struggling with weak wage growth and high inflation; public spending is shrinking; andbusiness investment has been sluggish.
更糟糕的是,英国购买了很多的欧元重灾区的债务。英国银行放款给爱尔兰,西班牙,意大利,葡萄牙和希腊。截止到六月份,放款总额为3500亿美元,相当于其GDP的15%。商业和银行投放大多数款项,但是政府的款项也占到10%。同时,政府也间接放出一些款项。6月份,又一笔2100亿银行资产贷款给了法国和德国的银行,这些钱之后会间接借给意大利和西班牙。
Growing anxiety about public finances in Europe has sapped confidence in banks which arebig holders of government bonds. And the rush by European banks to sell bonds of the leastcreditworthy sovereigns has made things worse. European banks are finding it harder torefinance their own debts at reasonable interest rates, and funding costs are rising for Britishbanks too. That will eventually feed through to higher interest rates on loans to companiesand consumers. Banks nervous about euro-zone assets turning sour and keen to preservescarce capital will be cautious about making new loans, which will only add to the recessionaryforces.
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