How far might the economy fall? The central case of the Bank of Englands monetary-policycommittee is that output will be broadly flat in the current quarter and in the first half of 2012,though it thinks a worse outcome is more likely than a better one. Its forecast excludes thepossibility of a big euro-zone blow-up, not because this is improbable but because there is nomeaningful way to calculate its impact. Fear that the euro zone will disintegrate will itselfweigh on the economy.
经济衰退还要多久?尽管不好的情况发生的可能性比较大,英国央行货币政策委员会公布的数据:产出量本季度和明年一季度会与之前持平。英国的预测也放大了欧元区危机爆发的危机程度。不是因为无法预测他,而是没有可行的方法来测算其影响。对于欧元区的担心也加重了对于其自身经济的担忧。
Absent a complete meltdown, the second dip of a double-dip recession ought to be smallerthan the first, because there are fewer excesses to correct. Britains current-account deficit iscloser to balance. The household savings rate is a healthy 7.2%, which means consumers havea bigger cushion between their income and spending than they did when recession first struckin 2008. There is less capital spending to cut back on: companies are already sitting on piles ofcash. And the flow of capital seeking a haven from the euro crisis will sustain demand forBritish government bonds, for fancy houses, and for other assets deemed to be safer thaneuro-zone banks or bonds. Real household income is likely to rise modestly in 2012 after fallingsharply this year because of high inflation and tax increases, notes Kevin Daly of GoldmanSachs.
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