Temporary factors have played some role in this. Soaring oil prices crimped consumer spending.The Japanese earthquake disturbed supply chains. In some industries, notably carproduction, a rebound is plainly under way. But the overall economy is now so weak that itwould take a lot to get growth up to a reasonable rate. And there are some signs that thetemporary shocks may have left a more lasting dent on the psyche of firms and shoppers.That is why the newest figures are so disconcerting. Consumer spending fell in June; consumerconfidence slumped in July, as did manufacturers orders. Of course, these are early,incomplete, snapshots, but the chances of a double dip over the coming year, which seemedrelatively small only a month ago, have risen alarmingly.

　　临时性因素起了一定作用。猛增的油价扭曲了消费性开支，日本的地震扰乱了供应链。某些行业，特别是汽车制造业，复苏的迹象很明显，但是整体上经济非常疲软，恢复到合理的增长速度任重而道远。而且有现象表明，短期的冲击给企业和消费者的心理造成了更为长期的影响。这就是为什么最新数据令人如此不安。6月份消费性支出下滑;7月份，随着制造商订单大幅下降，消费者信心也随之跌落。当然，这些都是早期的、不完整的现象，但是，明年经济二次探底的可能性虽然一个月前看还比较小已经增长到引发警觉的程度了。

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