If that happens, then Americas politicians will bearmuch of the blame . Their prescriptionfor a weak economy is a large slug of austerity.Thanks to the expiry of a payroll-tax credit andextended jobless benefits in December, the UnitedStates is on course for a fiscal contraction of some2% of GDP next year, the biggest of any largeeconomyand enough to drag a weak economy intorecession.
如果发生二次探底,美国政客要负主要责任。他们应对经济低迷的方法是大幅收缩财政。由于工资税减免政策和延长的失业补贴将于12月份终止,明年美国的财政收缩将达到GDP的约2%,高于任何大型经济体,且足以将低迷的经济拖入衰退的深渊。
The debt deal, which implies only modest new spending cuts in the short term, is not directlyresponsible for this. But Congress could, and should, have stopped this potentially ruinoustrajectory. There was a deal to be had: keep up spending in the short term, with a stress onmuch-needed infrastructure investment, as well as extending the temporary tax cuts, inexchange for a big medium-term reduction in the deficit, centred on entitlements and taxreform. Congress did precisely the opposite, failing to support the economy now and failing tofind enough cuts over the next decade to stabilise Americas debt. Any hard decisions havebeen given to a commissiona cop-out that condemns workers and firms to more cripplinguncertainty about how the countrys fiscal mess will be tackled. Would you build a factorytoday if you knew that taxes had to rise eventually, but had no idea which ones?
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