Much of that weakness may be traced to the run-up in oil prices that followed the Libyanuprising and to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which disrupted supply chains. Asboth shocks receded, economic activity turned up. An index of economic reports compiled bythe Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy grew in July ,though it may since have flagged again.
经济的虚弱之处大部分应归咎于原油价格的急剧增长,这是因为在利比亚起义和日本地震海啸之后,原油的供应链遭到了破坏。在这两大冲击都有所减弱后,经济活动得到了喘息之机。在芝加哥联邦储备银行编纂的一份经济报告指数显示,美国经济在7月份产生正增长,虽然它后来可能会再次陷入低迷。
Economists have long speculated that weak growthof this sort is like an aircrafts stall speed, belowwhich it risks falling out of the sky. A paper byJeremy Nalewaik of the Federal Reserve has foundthat since 1978, whenever the economy has grownless than 1% in a given quarter, a recession hassoon followed half to two-thirds of the time. .
经济学家们推测,这种类型的弱势增长就好像飞机的失速速度,一旦低于这个临界点,那么就有可能从空中坠落。美联储的Jeremy Nalewaik撰文写道,自1978年以来,无论何时只要某季度的经济增长率低于1%,那么很快地,在其后的一半或者三分之二的时间里就会处于衰退之中。
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