That is not as helpful as it sounds. Aircraft flying slowly do sometimes crash but, more often,they land. Slow-growing economies that fall into recession are typically pushed, as some shockforces a pre-existing imbalance to tip them over.
这并非像听起来那样有效。飞机飞的过慢时或许会坠毁,但更多的时候它们可以选择着陆。而陷入不景气的缓慢经济却往往处于困境之中,因为某些打击使得已失衡的部分倾覆整个经济体系。
Such imbalances are hard to find now in America. Housing, cars and business inventories, thethree most volatile components of GDP, usually accelerate the contraction that bringsrecession. None looks especially stretched. Quite the opposite: house-construction has neverclimbed off the bottom, and now makes up just 2.4% of GDP, less than half its historicalaverage . Mike Gorman, a builder in northern Virginia, says that his business hascollapsed over the past three years. We went from 40 employees to one part-timer. Werebuilding just a house or two here or there. Its been really, really quiet. Car production hasrebounded, but to a level well below its typical share of GDP. The ratio of business inventoriesto sales, which soared during the recession, is now back to normal.
这样的不安定因素在美国已经很难找到。住房,汽车和商业库存,这国内生产总值的三大最不稳定成分,通常会加速导致衰退的通货紧缩。没有哪家能脱身事外。恰恰相反:住房建设从未脱离底部进入上升,并且现在仅占GDP的2.4%,低于历史平均水平的一半。 Mike Gorman,北弗吉尼亚州的一个建造商,说道他的生意在过去的三年里遭受重挫。我们原来有40名雇员,而现在只有一个兼职人员。我们只是零散地盖了一两栋房子。这真的,真的太萧条了。汽车产量业已回升,但只是处于GDP的通常份额标准之下。商业存货销售比在经济衰退期间飙升,而现在也已经回跌到正常水平。
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