The shock that pushes the economy over the edge often originates in financial markets.Although stock prices have plummeted, credit is relatively easy to come by. Spreads oncorporate bonds are normal, short-term interest rates are deeply negative when adjusted forinflation, and the Feds latest survey has found banks more anxious to lend, the exactopposite of lending conditions in the run-up to recession, notes Kevin Logan of HSBC.
将经济推向悬崖边缘的冲击通常来源于金融市场。虽然股市一路暴跌,贷款却唾手可得。公司债券的信贷利差维持正常,而短期利率再算上通胀率影响后变为负值,而美联储最近调查表明银行更加急于放贷,和衰退前夕的放贷环境恰恰相反,汇丰银行的Kevin Logan随手记道。
Although the absence of obvious imbalances or financial strains does not eliminate the risk ofrecession in America, it does militate against a long, deep downturn. Indeed, it may be hard formost people to distinguish a shallow recession from lacklustre growth.
尽管缺少明显的经济不平衡和资金紧张的迹象,这也并不能消除美国会爆发经济衰退的风险,但是,这的确会对防止美国进入持久的大幅度的经济下滑产生影响。事实上,对于大多数人们来说,区分平淡无奇的增长和不明显的衰退是很困难的。
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