Beefed-up burgernomics
日益强大的汉堡经济学
THE Big Mac index celebrates its 25th birthday this year. Invented by The Economist in 1986 asa lighthearted guide to whether currencies are at their correct level, it was never intended asa precise gauge of currency misalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory moredigestible. Yet the Big Mac index has become a global standard, included in several economictextbooks and the subject of at least 20 academic studies. American politicians have even citedthe index in their demands for a big appreciation of the Chinese yuan. With so many peopletaking the hamburger standard so seriously, it may be time to beef it up.
巨无霸指数已经诞生25年了。在1986年的一期经济学人杂志中第一次出现,当初仅仅是为了让人们更易理解汇率,随意的作为一个衡量货币是否在正常水平的指标,人们从没有指望它能作为一个估评货币的标准。然而如今巨无霸指标已经成为国际的一个标准,被数个经济读本引用还成为至少20个学术研究的课题。美国的政客们甚至借这一数字来要求中国人民币的增值。鉴于人们如此看重汉堡指数,可能是时候去讨论一下它的意义了。
Burgernomics is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity , the notion that in thelong run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalise the prices of anidentical basket of goods and services in any two countries. Theaverage price of a Big Mac in America is $4.07; in China it is only $2.27 at market exchangerates, 44% cheaper. In other words, the raw Big Mac index suggests that the yuan isundervalued by 44% against the dollar. In contrast, the currencies of Switzerland and Norwayappear to be overvalued by around 100%. The euro is overvalued by 21% against the dollar; sterling is slightly undervalued;the Japanese yen seems to be spot-on. For the first time, we have included India in our survey.McDonalds does not sell Big Macs there, so we have taken the price of a Maharaja Mac, madewith chicken instead of beef. Meat accounts for less than 10% of a burgers total cost, so this isunlikely to distort results hugely. It indicates that the rupee is 53% undervalued.
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