一些人觉得很难接受汉堡经济。因为汉堡不易跨国交易,而且价格随着当地非交易商品的成本,例如租金、员工薪资的不同也有偏差。打个比方,巨无霸指数表明,大多数新兴市场国家的货币的汇率很大程度上被低估,。但你可能认为贫穷国家的平均价格比富有国家的低,是因为劳动力更廉价,其实这是巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应带来的偏见。富国的生产率比贫国的生产率高出很多,所以在商品交易环节的薪值更高。 又因为公司之间会竞争雇佣员工,这也使得非交易商品和服务上花费的金钱水涨船高。 所以 贫国的平均价格要低一些。上图显示了一个巨无霸的美元价值和个人的GDP之间有很强的正比关系。
Chinas average income is only one-tenth of that in America so economic theory would suggestthat its exchange rate should be below its long-run PPP . PPP signals where exchange rates should be headingin the long run, as China gets richer, but it says little about todays equilibrium rate. However,the relationship between prices and GDP per person can perhaps be used to estimate thecurrent fair value of a currency. The top chart shows the line of best fit between Big Macprices and GDP per person for 48 countries. The difference between the price predicted by thered line for each country, given its income per head, and its actual price offers a better guide tocurrency under- and overvaluation than the PPP-based raw index.
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