Super-size jubilee
巨型周年纪念
In trade-weighted terms our calculations suggest that the yuan is a modest 7% undervalued,hardly grounds for a trade war. That is less than previous estimates of a 20-25%undervaluation, based on models that calculate the appreciation in the yuan needed to reduceChinas current-account surplus to a manageable level of, say, 3% of GDP. Even thissurplus-based method now points to a smaller yuan undervaluation than it used to becauseChinas surplus has shrunk. Several private-sector economists forecast that it could dropbelow 4% of GDP this year, down from nearly 11% in 2007. As its productivity rises over timeChina must continue to allow its real exchange rate to rise , but our new burger barometer suggests that the yuan isnot hugely undervalued today.
从贸易加权的角度来看,分析表明人民币只被低估了7%,根本不能成为贸易战的原因。根据模型分析得出,人民币的增值应该将中国的活期储蓄盈余减少至一个可以控制的水平,比如说30%。而就是这个以盈余为评判标准的方法,现在也指出,由于中国的盈余缩减了,人民币的低估值也小了。一些私营企业的经济学家预测,中国今年的GDP的增长幅度将从2007年11%下降至不到4%。因为生产率连年上升,中国必须持续提高自己的实际汇率,,无论怎样,我们新一轮的汉堡测量表都显示,人民币元没有被太多的低估。
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