2015考研英语阅读中国计划生育政策_大学英语阅读

2015考研英语阅读中国计划生育政策

　　But the policy has almost certainly reduced fertilitybelow the level to which it would have fallen anyway.As a result, China has one of the worlds lowestdependency ratios, with roughly threeeconomically active adults for each dependent childor old person. It has therefore enjoyed a largerdemographic dividend than itsneighbours. But the dividend is near to beingcashed out. Between 2000 and 2010, the share ofthe population under 14future providers for theirparentsslumped from 23% to 17%. China now has too few young people, not too many. Ithas around eight people of working age for every person over 65. By 2050 it will have only 2.2.Japan, the oldest country in the world now, has 2.6. China is getting old before it has got rich.

　　不过几乎可以肯定的是，若没有独生子女政策，生育率也会下降，但不会下降到如此程度。这样一来，中国成为了全世界供养比最低的国家之一，大约每三个具有劳动能力的成人供养一个老人或儿童。因此中国比其邻国享有更为丰厚的人口红利。但是人口红利正在耗尽。2000至2010年间，14岁以下人口占总人口的比重从23%骤降至17%。中国的年轻人不是太多了，而是太少了。目前劳动适龄人口与65岁以上人口之比大约为8比1，到2050年这一数字将只有2.2。现在日本是老龄化最为严重的国家，它的数字是2.6。中国正在走向未富先老。

　　The policys distortions have also contributed to other horrific features of family life, notablythe practice of aborting female fetuses to ensure that the lone child is a son. The one-childpolicy is not the sole cause, as India shows, but it has contributed to it. In 20 years time, therewill not be enough native brides for about a fifth of todays baby boysa store of futuretrouble. And even had the one-child policy done nothing to reduce births, the endlessreiteration of slogans like one more baby means one more tomb would have helped to makethe sole child a social norm, pushing fertility below the level at which a population reproducesitself. China may find itself stuck with very low fertility for a long time.