中国的宏观经济学家,如果不是消费者的话,可以从通货膨胀中得到些许安慰。2/3的通货膨胀是由食物价上涨引起的,而期中最大的原因在于猪肉价格的上涨。养猪户以减少饲养数量的方式来应对去年的猪肉价格低迷状况。这致使仅仅今年七月份猪肉价格以265%的年率上升了11.4%。这打乱了许多经济学家对通货膨胀的预期。里昂证券的经济学家安迪?罗斯曼笑称要是我是一名兽医就好了
The source of Chinas growth is more worrying thanits speed. According to Mark Williams of CapitalEconomics, investment comprised 62% of theeconomys expansion in the second quarter, itsbiggest contribution for 18 months. Investment infixed assets, such as buildings, factories andequipment, has grown by between 21% and 26%,year on year, for the past four quarters, despite thegovernments efforts to tighten credit. Thisresilience may be because so much investment iscarried out by state-owned firms, which are at thetop of the pecking order when banks make loans. It may also be a sign that financing is not astight as the hawks would like.
与经济增长速度相比更令人担忧的是中国经济增长的根源问题。Capital Economics的经济学家MarkWilliams称,投资在第二季度的经济增长中占据62%的份额,这是它在过去的18个月的最大贡献。尽管政府做出了紧缩信贷的努力,固定资产的投入,如建筑物、厂房和设备, 与去年同期相比,在过去的四个季度已增长到21%26%。这种回弹可能是由于国有企业大量投资的缘故,而国有公司是银行发放贷款的首要对象。这可能表明融资并不像鹰派所期望的那样稳固。
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