On the face of it, banks are feeling the pinch, charging each other high rates in the interbanklending market. They made new loans worth 634 billion yuan in June, typically astrong month for lending. This puts them on course to add less than 7.5 trillion yuan to theirloan books this year, according to Peng Wensheng of China International Capital Corporation.
表面上看,银行之间在同业拆借市场上的相互控制让它们感到压力。在六月份它们共发放了6340亿元人民币的贷款,一个典型而强大的月贷出。中国国际金融有限公司经济学家彭文生指出,这使得他们在账面上增加将近7.5万亿元的贷款。
But other analysts think financial conditions are looser than they appear. The central bankpublishes a broader measure of social financing, which includes corporate bonds and someloans repackaged by trust companies. By this measure, financing could reach 14.5 trillionyuan this year, according to Fitch, a ratings agency. Even that total may be too low. Fitchbelieves a better measure of financingwhich includes letters of credit loans from Hong Kongand more of the credit from trust companies and similar firms could exceed 18 trillion yuanthis year. That would take Chinas stock of financing to 185% of GDP, up from 124% in 2007.
但其他经济分析家认为金融条件比它们所呈现的更加宽松。中央银行颁布了一个范围更广的社会融资方案,其中包括公司债券和一些重组的 信托投资公司贷款。评级机构惠誉指出,通过这一措施,融资可达到14.5万亿元人民币。然而总数可能太少了。惠誉认为更好的融资方案应该包括来自香港的信贷投资以及来自信托投资公司和类似公司今年的总数将超过18万亿元人民币。这需要中国的股票融资占国内生产总值的比重由2007年的124%上升至185%。
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