One way this will show up is in a proliferation of places like Le Amor. A lot of schools will closedown. Wang Feng of the Brookings Institution notes that Chinas primary-school enrolmentdropped from 25.3m in 1995 to 16.7m in 2008. Revoking the one-child policy would probablynot make a big difference. Chinese couples have small families mainly because children areexpensive, Mr Wang argues. Chinas rapid ageing, combined with a shrinking labour force, willfundamentally reshape the Chinese economy and society, he suggests. In the next decadethe number of people aged 20-24 will drop by 50%, Mr Wang predicts.
非劳动年龄人口的增长会以像Le Amor.这样的养老院扩张的形式出现。许多学校将会停学。Brookings研究所的王峰指出,中国的中学录取人数从1995年的2530万降到了 2008年的1670万。取消独生子女政策可能也不会使这产生较大的改观。王峰指出,中国夫妇选择三口之家是因为抚养孩子的成本高昂。同时,他还指出,中国迅速的老龄化,随同劳动力萎缩会彻底的重塑中国的经济和社会。王峰预计,在未来的几十年中,中国20至24岁人口的数量将会下降到50%。
Optimists believe China still has several more years before the economic impact of an ageingpopulation becomes apparent. Chinas commerce minister, Chen Deming, said in March 2010that the country could still enjoy another decade of demographic dividends. In a report lastyear Morgan Stanley pointed to 80m-100m surplus labourers in the countryside who could beemployed in urban areas .It also expressed optimism about continuing productivity gains from rising levels ofeducation and technology use.
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