On the face of it, banks are feeling the pinch, charging each other high rates in the interbanklending market. They made new loans worth 634 billion yuan in June, typically astrong month for lending. This puts them on course to add less than 7.5 trillion yuan to theirloan books this year, according to Peng Wensheng of China International Capital Corporation.
从表面上来看,各银行手头比较紧,在银行间的借贷市场上也相互收取高利率。6月份,它们发放了6340亿元的新贷款,这个月通常是放贷的旺季。中金公司的彭文生表示,这将使它们今年的新增贷款不超过7.5万亿元。
But other analysts think financial conditions are looser than they appear. The central bankpublishes a broader measure of social financing, which includes corporate bonds and someloans repackaged by trust companies. By this measure, financing could reach 14.5 trillionyuan this year, according to Fitch, a ratings agency. Even that total may be too low. Fitchbelieves a better measure of financingwhich includes letters of credit loans from Hong Kongand more of the credit from trust companies and similar firms could exceed 18 trillion yuanthis year. That would take Chinas stock of financing to 185% of GDP, up from 124% in 2007.
但是其他分析人士认为,融资环境比其表面看起来更加宽松。中国央行公布了更加宽泛的社会融资标准,其中包括公司债务和一些由信托公司重新包装过的贷款。按照这项标准,惠誉评级机构认为,今年的融资金额可达14.5万亿元。连这个数目也是严重偏低的。衡量融资的更好标准是包括香港的信用证和来自信托公司及相关公司更多信贷的,惠誉认为,按照这个标准来算,中国今年的融资额可能超过18万亿元。这将使中国的融资额从2007年国内生产总值的124%上升至185%。
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