He argues that Asian manufacturing has gone through a number of phases, each lasting about30 years. When China was isolated under Mao Zedong, companies in Hong Kong, Taiwan andSouth Korea grew expert at making things. When China reopened in the late 1970s, after Maosdeath, these experienced Asian operators converged on southern China. With almost freeaccess to land and labour, plus an efficient port and logistics hub in nearby Hong Kong, theystarted to make things ever more cheaply and sell them to the whole world.
布鲁斯认为,亚洲的制造业经历了几个阶段,每个阶段持续了约30年之久。毛泽东领导下的中国处于孤立时,香港、台湾和南韩的公司是制造业的主力军;在1970年代末期,也就是在毛泽东去世之后,中国实行改革开放,这些经验丰富的亚洲制造业经营商纷纷在中国南部各省开设工厂。几乎免费的土地和劳动力成本,外加上高效的港口和邻近香港的物流枢纽,让他们生产的产品价格更加低廉并销往全世界。
For the next 30 years manufacturers in China helped to keep global inflation in check. Butthat era is now over, says Mr Rockowitz. Chinese wages are rising fast. A wave of new demand,especially from China itself, is feeding a surge in commodity prices. Manufacturers can findsome relief by moving production to new areas, such as western China, Vietnam, Bangladesh,Malaysia, India and Indonesia. But none of these new places will curb inflation the waysouthern China once did, he predicts. All rely on the same increasingly expensive pool ofcommodities. Many have rising wages or poor logistics. None can provide the scale andefficiency that was created when manufacturers converged on southern China.
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