但是新的全国人口普查数据却证实了过去几年关于中国面临一个截然不同的人口危机的断言,即中国的人口出生率过低。刚于4月28日发布的数据显示,中国大陆拥有13亿4千万人口。而年均人口增长率的巨幅下降也跃然纸上:中国年均人口增长率在2000到2010这个10年的区间中下降到了0.57%, 是1990-2000这10年的一半。这份数据显示总生育率,也就是一位孕龄女性在其一生将平均会有1.4个孩子,远远低于2.1的人口更替水平,而人口更替水平是维持人口稳定的标准。
Slower growth is matched by a dramatic ageing of the population. People above the age of 60now represent 13.3% of the total, up from 10.3% in 2000 . In the same period,those under the age of 14 declined from 23% to 17%. A continuation of these trends willplace ever greater burdens on the working young who must support their elderly kin, as well ason government-run pension and health-care systems. Chinas great demographic dividend is almost over.
In addition to skewing the countrys age distribution, the one-child policy has probablyexacerbated its dire gender imbalance. Many more baby boys are born in China than baby girls.China is not unique in this; other countries, notably India, have encountered similar problemswithout coercive population controls. But Chinese officials do not dispute that the one-childpolicy has played a role. Chinas strong cultural imperative for male offspring has led manyfamilies to do whatever they must to ensure that their one permissible child is a son. In theearliest days of the one-child policy, this sometimes meant female infanticide. As ultrasoundtechnology spread, sex-selective abortions became widespread.
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