David Lobell and Justin Costa-Roberts, of StanfordUniversity, and Wolfram Schlenker, of ColumbiaUniversity, first put together temperature andprecipitation figures for the parts of the worldwhere four staple cropswheat, maize, rice andsoyaare grown. Those four crops, between them,account for about 75% of the calories people end upeating, although a lot of the soya is fed to animalsfirst.
斯坦福大学的戴维德?罗拜耳、扎斯汀?考斯特-罗伯特和加利福尼亚大学的沃尔夫然姆?史灵克,首次将世界上以小麦、玉米、稻子和大豆作为主要农作物的部分地区的气温和降水量结合在一起。他们共同研究发现,尽管很多大豆首先被用来喂牲畜,但人们最终所吃的热量有75%是这四种作物提供的。
It turns out that during the seasons in which crops grow, these arable areas had on averagebecome significantly warmer in the 29 years after 1979. Some bits of Europe that grow wheat,for example, have heated up by a couple of degrees since 1980. The researchers thenassembled models of how the yields changed from year to year, and against the longer trend,to find changes linked to temperature and rainfall that are independent of improvementsthrough better farming. Finally they compared todays yields with what their models say yieldswould have been with todays farming but in the 1980s climate.
研究发现,从1979年以后的29年里,在农作物的生长季节,这些可耕作面积的气温普遍越来越暖。例如,自1980 年起,一些种植小麦的欧洲地区气温上升了两度。为了发现与气温和降水有关的产量变化,并且是不依赖于农耕方法的改进引起的变化,研究人员接着建立了产量逐年同比变化的模型,并与更长的趋势相对照。模型显示,产量变化除了1980年与气候变化有关外,可能与现在的耕作方法有关。最后,他们将现在的产量与模型显示的产量相对照。
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