Popping corn
夸大得象爆玉米花
For both wheat and maize, the results, published this week by Science, were negative.Globally, wheat yields are down 5.5% compared with what they would have been with noclimate change, and maize yields are down 3.8%. For soya, some places saw improvements,some saw damage, with no real net effect on the global scale. For rice, warming brought aclear benefit for crops at higher latitudes and some losses in warmer places. Temperatureplayed a bigger role than precipitation. The results seem to fit with previous studies into sucheffects in individual countries.
研究发表在本周的《科学》杂志上,对小麦和玉米来说,结果是否定的。在全球范围内,与没有气候变化的条件下相比较,小麦产量下降5.5%,玉米产量下降 3.8%。大豆则某些地方增产,某些地方减产,没有真正相同的全球范围的影响。对稻子来说,气温变化对较高维度地区明显有益,而对较温和的某些地区则有损害。气温比降水造成的影响更大。这一结果似乎符合以前做过的关于在单个国家里这种影响的研究。
But there are caveats. For example, the analysisdoes not track changes over time in the areas beingfarmed, using instead a crop map from around 2000.And many agronomists hold that relying on year-to-year yield changes for modelling exaggerates thedamage due to longer climate shifts. Farmers willtend to adapt. That said, subtler effects of climatechange such as more sudden rains and particularlyhot days with disproportionate effects on yield areleft out, which might mean the study underestimatesthe effects.
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