但是需要做一些说明。例如,这一分析没有追踪现已被耕种地区的产量随时间的变化,反而使用的是2000年前后的作物分布图。很多农学家认为,依靠逐年同比的产量变化建模,夸大了较长时间气候变化引起的损害。那样农民将会适应。这说明,诸如较为突然地降雨等气候变化的较微弱的影响,和特别热的天气对产量的很大的影响被忽视,这可能意味着研究低估了影响。
Some people will be surprised, even dismayed, that comparatively modest climate changes arealready doing measurable damage. But in context, it is quite small. Yields have been going uparound the world despite the warming climateand over 29 years those increases swamp theestimated global reductions due to climate. The sort of loss that climate change inflicts in adecade is often the sort of gain that better farming brings in a year. What is more, for wheatthe increasing level of carbon dioxide that is changing the climate also makes photosynthesiseasier, which should have increased yields enough to wipe out perhaps half of the climate-related loss .
有些人将感到吃惊甚至惊愕,因为不太大的气候变化已经造成了重大的损害。但是在上文中,这种损害相当小。尽管气候变暖,但世界各地的农作物产量一直在增加而且29年来的这种增产超过了估计的由于气候变化造成的全球减产。十年里气候变化造成的减产,经常与一年里由于耕种技术改进带来的增产相等。而且,对小麦来讲,一直影响气候的CO2的含量增加也使光合作用更为容易,这将使产量增加到足以抵消大约一半的与气候有关的损失。
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