Yeah, thats right. They are talking about that. And I did speak with Frederic Neumann just a short while ago. He is a HSBCs managing director of Asian Economics Research. He told me 2016 is actually a credible time frame, especially of course because its coming from the IMF itself. But he also said there are other ways and perhaps better ways to measure economies. The IMF here did use purchasing power parity. Lets take a listen.
For one is to measure an economys output in US dollar terms, not a PPP terms as the IMF has done, which is a measure of purchasing power that local households have, just to look at that in US dollar terms, and here it would take much longer for the Chinese economy to overtake the US, probably 2025 or thereabouts, when we see finally China coming close to the US. And thats a better gage for international purchasing power. But the other relevant measure is per capita income. And thats ultimately what everybody really counts on. And per capita time in China to catch up with US prosperity.
And Neumann said that on that measure by per capita income, China would overtake the US only in the 2040s or the 2050s. Regardless, Adrew, whether its then or in five years from now, its not a question of if China will surpass the US but when and we will be talking about this again and again until it does.
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