附原文:
Floods, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Wildfires, Earthquakes ... Why We Dont Prepare
By AMANDA RIPLEY/ BOULDER
Posted Sunday, Aug. 20, 2006
Every July the countrys leading disaster scientists and emergency planners gather in Boulder, Colo., for an invitation-only workshop. Picture 440 people obsessed with the tragic and the safe, people who get excited about earthquake shake maps and righteous about flood insurance. Its a spirited but wonky crowd that is growing more melancholy every year.
After 9/11, the people at the Boulder conference decried the nations myopic focus on terrorism. They lamented the decline of the Federal Emergency Management Agency . And they warned to the point of clichthat a major hurricane would destroy New Orleans. It was a convention of prophets without any disciples.
This year, perhaps to make the farce explicit, the event organizers, from the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder, introduced a parlor game. They placed a ballot box next to the water pitchers and asked everyone to vote: What will be the next mega-disaster? A tsunami, an earthquake, a pandemic flu? And where will it strike? It was an amusing diversion, although not a hard question for this lot.
Because the real challenge in the U.S. today is not predicting catastrophes. That we can do. The challenge that apparently lies beyond our grasp is to prepare for them. Dennis Mileti ran the Natural Hazards Center for 10 years, and is the countrys leading expert on how to warn people so that they will pay attention. Today he is semi retired, but he comes back to the workshop each year to preach his gospel. This July, standing before the crowd in a Hawaiian shirt, Mileti was direct: How many citizens must die? How many people do you need to see pounding through their roofs? Like most people there, Mileti was heartbroken by Katrina, and he knows hell be heartbroken again. We know exactly--exactly--where the major disasters will occur, he told me later. But individuals under-perceive risk.
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