The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacitic is of immense importance.The 1997 El Nino,for example,caused an estimated$20 billion in damage worldwide,offset by beneficial effects in other areas,said David Anderson,of the European Centre for Medium.Range Weather Forecasts in Reading England.The 1877 El Nino,meanwhile,coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China。prompting the development of seasonal forecasting,Anderson said.
When El Nino hit in 199 1 and 1997.200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone.according to a 2002 United Nations report.
While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky.the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed.
E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February.The warming tends to last between 9 and 1 2 months and occurs every two to seven years?
The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.
E1 Nino n.厄尔尼诺现象
Equatorial adj.赤道的
Occurrence n.发生
Meteorologist n.气象学家
Offset v.抵销
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