Now that many U.S. residents are staying put in large cities due to a housing crunch, California, Illinois and New York each are on track to avert a loss of at least one House seat. Florida could add one or two seats to its delegation depending on how much recent mortgage foreclosures have erased earlier population gains.
“From all that we have been seeing, there is a definite slowdown in the migration trends that had put these states at risk,” said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, a Virginia-based firm that crunches political numbers. Those states have “been given a grace of God.”
Still, noting that many of the population numbers remain in flux, Brace cautioned: “A whole congressional seat can change at the drop of the hat.”
An analysis by the Brookings Institution think tank finds immigration is buoying many of the nation’s larger cities. New York and Los Angeles picked up 1.1 million and 815,000 immigrants since 2000, respectively, and together account for one-fourth of the foreign-born arrivals. That lessened the impact of an exodus of 1.8 million residents from New York and 1.2 million from Los Angeles.
Chicago, Washington and Miami have been hurt by overbuilding and foreclosures in parts of their metro regions, but last year they reversed trends from earlier in the decade and posted increases in immigrants that more than offset losses in native-born Americans.
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