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Black swans

Reader question:

Please explain why “‘Black Swan’ event” in this passage (Thinking the Unthinkable: What if China Devalues the Renminbi? Global Research, February 19, 2010):

Reducing investment and exports could create a severe recession in China. China has gone too far this time. They appear to be in a box that they and others don’t recognize. The “Black Swan” event this year, as far as China true believers are concerned, could well be a devaluation of the RMB. Were that to happen, the political consequences could be as significant as the economic.

My comments:

Here, Black Swans have obviously nothing to do with the birds, but a business jargon referring to extreme, unpredictable events, such as the subprime crisis in 2008 and the 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York.

Nassim Taleb, a Lebanon-born writer, scientist and businessman, is credited with coining this term in his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

A summary of the book explains how “black swans” came to represent unpredictable events (SqueezedBooks.com):

The idea of the black swan refers to the fact that, prior to the discovery of Australia, it was assumed that all swans were white, because no one (well, no European at least) had ever seen a black swan. However, they do exist.

However, in the book, a “black swan” refers to any event that is rare, has an extreme impact, and is explainable and predictable - but only in hindsight.