Yet despite such advice, total college enrollment (入学) has fallen by 1.5% since 2017. What’s causing the decline? While a shortage of birth in the mid-1990s accounts for some of the shift, big foreign enrollment makes up for that lack. The answer is simple: The benefits of a degree are declining while costs rise.
A key measure of the benefits of a degree is the college graduate’s earning potential and on this score, their advantage over high-school graduates is fading. Since 2006, the gap between what the median college graduate earned, compared with the median high-school graduate, has narrowed by $1,387 for men over 25 working full time, a 5% fall, women in the same category worse, losing 7% of their income advantage. A college degree’s declining value is even more noticeable for younger Americans. According to data collected by the College Board, for those in the 25-34 age range the difference between college graduate and high school graduate earnings fell 11% for men, to $18,303 from $20,623. The decline for women was an extraordinary 19.7%.
Meanwhile, the cost of college has increased 16.5% in 2017 since 2006, according to the Office of Labor Statistics’ higher education tuition-fee index. Tuition discount from universities has slowed down the rise, but not enough to balance the clear increase adjusted to the inflation (通货膨胀).
Underemployment has arisen with this situation. The 2017 College Affordability and Productivity Report showed explosive growth in the number of college graduates taking relatively unskilled jobs. In 1970 less than 1% of taxi drivers had college degrees. Four decades later, more than 15% do. This is only partly the result of the economic depression and public policies that have failed to produce employment growth. It’s also the result of an academic arms race in which universities have spent large sums on elegant dormitories and campus expansion. More significantly, it’s the result of sending more high-school graduates to college than professional fields can accommodate.
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