The results of this have been mixed. On the German bank of the river Oder stand factories that the government had hoped would be world-beaters in making photovoltaic cells. But they have been undercut by Asian competitors which now supply most of the gleaming modules sprouting in Bavarian fields. Germans have, though, become top dogs at making the machines that make the cells: Manz Automation is one of the biggest producers of equipment used to make thin-film solar cells. Three-quarters of its machines are sold to Asia.
Germany’s success in emerging markets is a source of both pride and vulnerability, for it would be hard hit were growth there to slow. The extent to which exports to a single market—China—have flattered the income statements of German firms is worrying. Growth in many of Germany’s other markets, in the euro area and beyond, is already sluggish. This year looks as if it will be harder than last.
Moreover, Germany still has hard work ahead of it. The services sector, despite some liberalisation (for instance, in retailing) is still underdeveloped. A system of schooling that has proved reliable in turning out industrial workers needs an overhaul (see article). For all of the success of German firms in exporting goods, some German banks made the mistake of buying American mortgage debts. The banking system, especially the publicly owned bit, is yet to recover fully.
None of these problems is insurmountable and Germany, unlike many countries, has the time and budget to deal with them. The risk, however, is that Germany may choose to bask in its triumph and to slip back into old habits, suppressing domestic demand and focusing all its efforts on exporting more. “We are living a bit on borrowed time in a sweet spot where the deficit countries haven’t yet adjusted,” says Deutsche Bank’s Mr Mayer. “One of the big risks is complacency.”
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