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Ripple effect

Both Boston and Atlanta promptly fell into epic slumps. The Red Sox lost 17 of their next 23 games, and the Braves 12 of their next 17. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay and St Louis heated up, and tied their struggling competitors on the season’s penultimate day. If either the Red Sox or Braves failed to hold off their challengers, their collapses would rank among the most precipitous in history—right there with that of the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers, whose defeat was chronicled in Don DeLillo’s novel “Underworld”.

St Louis won its last game of the year. That meant the Braves would need to best the formidable Philadelphia Phillies just to stay tied. They were poised to do just that as they entered the final inning with a one-run lead, giving them an 87% chance of victory. But in the most important appearance of his career, Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta’s dominant relief pitcher, suddenly lost his ability to throw the ball in the vicinity of home plate. He allowed three walks and one run, sending the game into extra innings. Four frames later, the Phillies scratched home a run and the Braves could not match it. This graph of the probability of an Atlanta victory throughout the game is a powerful representation of their path to defeat.

About one hour later, the Red Sox found themselves in an identical position. They too were clinging to a one-run lead going into the ninth inning and had a star relief pitcher, Jonathan Papelbon, headed to the mound. Mr Papelbon struck out the first two batters he faced, making Boston 95% likely to win. But one batter away from victory, Boston’s 86-year curse seemed to re-emerge. The next two batters doubled, tying the game. Then Carl Crawford—the left fielder whom Boston signed away from Tampa Bay last winter for $142m, in part because of his defensive prowess—misplayed the next hitter’s line drive, allowing the winning run to score. If you thought the Braves’ graph was heartbreaking, take a look at this one.