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Shanghai is likely to experience a short-lived baby boom, but the city will not solve the problem of its aging population anytime soon, an expert said after the city relaxed its one-child policy on Tuesday.
Zhou Haiwang, deputy director of the Institute of Urban and Population Development Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Science, said the policy change will bring a sharp rise in the city's total population, but the proportion of residents over 60 will keep growing.
"The baby boom is expected to last for two to three years," Zhou said. "But the city will continue to have an imbalanced population structure."
On Tuesday, Shanghai's legislature followed its counterparts in other areas, including Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Anhui, to approve an amendment of the law to allow couples to have a second child if either parent is an only child.
The rule will go into effect on March 1, with the added stipulation that at least one of the prospective parents must possess a Shanghai hukou, or household registration.
"The revision will help improve the city's imbalanced population structure," said Xu Jianguang, director of the Shanghai Health and Family Planning Commission.
Under the new policy, about 400,000 more families in the city will be eligible to have a second baby, and demographers said an additional 20,000 babies could be born in the next three years.
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