但对中国来说,用人民币贬值来应对美国的关税,可能比其他方法更具优势。由于中国对美国的出口远远超过从美国的进口,中国能征收关税的美国产品价值,不可能接近美国能对中国征收关税的产品价值。
Devaluations carry a legion of risks, though.
然而,货币贬值带来大量的风险。
First, it’s not clear the extent to which China might need to let its currency weaken. The decline of the past three months has potentially benefited all of China’s exports to the United States, which last year totaled over $500 billion, and partially offset the impact of the tariffs imposed so far. The United States’ first tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods, which took effect this month, are set at 25 percent.
首先,人们尚不清楚中国可能需要在多大程度上让人民币贬值。过去三个月的贬值可能已让所有的中国对美出口受益,去年中国对美国的出口总额超过5000亿美元,贬值也可能部分抵消了加征关税到目前为止所带来的影响。美国从本月开始对价值340亿美元的首批中国商品加征25%的关税。
Other tariffs proposed by Mr. Trump, on a larger value of goods, would be set much lower at 10 percent. But Chinese policymakers would likely want to avoid a situation in which investors and others believed the level of the currency was directly affected by developments in the trade war.
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