The Crash Of '99?

1999年会出现经济衰退吗？

THE CRISIS STAGE: TheU.S.economy suddenly looks weaker than almost anyone expected. The conventional wisdom still saysAmericawon't be pulled down by global economic woes. Don't bet on it.

危机时期：美国的经济，骤然看起来，比人们预计的要糟糕。很多看法仍然坚持美国不会被时下的全球经济灾难拖累。决不要在这个问题上打赌。

By Robert J. Samuelson

罗伯特·塞缪尔森

[1] There are two ways to interpret『解释；说明；阐明』 the slide of the stock market that, despite intermittent rallies『跌停回升；降后复涨』, is down almost 17 percent from its mid-July peak『最高点；高峰』. The first is that investors simply got rattled『惊慌失措』 by a series of events that they barely understood, from the collapse of the Russian ruble in mid-August to the near bankruptcy『破产』of the Long- Term Capital Markets hedge fund『投资基金；投资集团』 at the end of September. The second is that the market is signaling『做表示；发信号』 a genuine economic turning point: that the United States, after more than seven years of healthy expansion, is stumbling into『陷入』 sharp slowdown or even a recession『衰退；衰退期』.

[1]尽管股市断断续续出现反弹，但仍从今年7月中旬的最高点下跌了大约17％。对于当前股市的狂泻有两种解释：第一种解释是，投资者对所发生的一系列事件困惑不解。这些事件有8月中旬俄罗斯卢布的贬值、9月底长期资本管理公司濒临崩溃等；第二种解释是，市场正在发出经济将发生真正转折的信号：美国经济在经历了7年健康的增长之后将急剧减速，甚至进入衰退。

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