[4] The best way to grasp this is to see the economic events of the past 15 months as a set of dominoes『多米诺骨牌』that, as they tumbled『跌倒；坍塌』, have imperiled『危及；使……陷于』 U.S. production and profits-and frayed『磨损』Americans' confidence. It was sky-high confidence, based on stratospheric『最高的』stock prices and strong job growth, that kept consumers spending furiously『热烈地；兴奋地』in early 1998. The personal savings rate sank to less than 1 percent, as Americans spent almost all their current income. But with the global crisis eroding『削弱；破坏』corporate profits, stock prices dropped. If consumer spending-two thirds of gross domestic product-follows stocks down, a slump may be inevitable『不可避免的；必然发生的』. A bad omen『征兆；兆头』: consumer confidence, though still high, has begun slipping lately (chart).

[4] 不祥的征兆 了解这一点最好的办法就是看一看在过去的15个月中发生的一系列经济事件。其他一些国家的经济出现的连锁危机波及到了美国的生产和利润，进而影响了美国民众的信心。美国人一度很强的信心是建立在稳定的股市和强劲的就业增长的基础之上的。正是这强劲的信心使得消费者在1998年初狂热地消费。由于美国人把他们获得的收入都消费掉了，储蓄率因此降到不足1％。可是，随着全球性的经济危机吞噬了公司的利润，股市开始下挫。如果消费支出随着股市的下跌而下降，衰退就将是不可避免的。一个不祥的征兆是，消费者的信心虽然还很强，但已经开始慢慢下降了。

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