The overall numbers of cases in the next five years, and the level of distancing required, were found to depend crucially on the overall current levels of infection and whether all those who are infected gain immunity and, if so, for how long. The authors cautioned that these are big unknowns and that a precise prediction of the long-term dynamics is not possible.
研究发现,未来五年的病例总数和所需的隔离水平很大程度上地取决于目前总体的感染水平以及被感染者是否都能获得免疫力,如果获得了免疫力,这种免疫力可以持续多久。作者警告称,这些都是很大的未知因素,因此准确预测疫情长期发展态势是不可能的。
If immunity is permanent, Covid-19 could disappear for five or more years after the first outbreak, the paper suggests. If people have immunity for about a year, as is seen for some other circulating coronaviruses, an annual outbreak cycle would be the most likely outcome.
研究报告指出,如果被感染者能获得永久的免疫力,那么新冠肺炎疫情将会在第一次暴发至少五年后消失。如果人们的免疫力能持续一年左右,就像其他一些循环流行的冠状病毒一样,那么一年一度的暴发周期将是最可能发生的结果。
Prof Marion Koopmans, the head of virology at the Erasmus University Medical Centre in Rotterdam, whose team is studying the antibody response of those infected, said complete and permanent protection would be unusual for a respiratory virus.
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