The authors themselves note:
In conjunction with the psychological and informational costs associated with competitive pressure ... these results should raise doubts that the increased competition for college admission has had a net positive effect on what and how students learn.
From an economic standpoint, it also seems probable that stagnant supply coupled with rising demand should generate a predictable price response. And sure enough:
That chart is from Niraj Choksi at the Atlantic. Now Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz have argued convincingly that recent growth in income inequality can be attributed to a relative decline in the supply of college graduates and a corresponding increase in the relative supply of lower skilled workers. But James Heckman has established that declines in college completion are about a drop in the rate of college enrolment and a corresponding decline in high school graduation rates. Heres the conclusion to a Vox piece by Mr Heckman and co- author Paul LaFontaine:
In the first half of the 20th century, growth in high school graduation was the driving force behind increased college enrolments. The decline in high school graduation since 1970 has flattened college attendance and completion rates as well as growth in the skill level of the U.S. workforce. To increase the skill levels of its future workforce, America needs to confront a large and growing dropout problem.The origins of this dropout problem have yet to be fully investigated. Evidence suggests a powerful role of the family in shaping educational and adult outcomes. A growing proportion of American children are being raised in disadvantaged families. This trend promises to reduce productivity and promote inequality in the America of tomorrow.
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