相反的观点是借贷者议价能力很强,像一些大型的国有企业,他们现在会有胆量让银行调低利率。一些人表示国企的不良贷款会延期偿还,利率也会很低,实际上相当于国家纾困。
On this view, as lower rates eat into their profits the big banks will be forced to look forhigher-margin opportunities at the small and medium-sized private firms that they havelong ignored. That in turn will put them in direct competition with smaller, private-sectorjoint-stock banks, such as China Merchants and China Minsheng, that have focused on thisarea.
从这个角度看,低利率会啃食大型银行的利润,他们会将目光转移到长期忽视的中小企业身上,贷款给这些企业利润更高。这会使他们与长期参与中小企业贷款的小型私营股份制银行产生直接竞争,比如中国招商银行,中国民生银行。
If so, Chinas banks may be about to enter a rocky period. ChinaScope Financial, a researchfirm, has analysed how increased competition and declining net interest margins willaffect banks operating in China. The boffins conclude that the smallest local outfits, knownas city commercial banks, and the middling private-sector banks will be hit hardest, but thatreturns on equity at the big five state banks will also be squeezed . They think theindustry will need $50 billion-100 billion in extra capital over the next two years to keep itscapital ratios stable.
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