2015考研英语阅读原油和世界经济_大学英语阅读

2015考研英语阅读原油和世界经济

　　分离出这些不同的因素有一定难度，但高盛公司的杰弗里?柯里估计，供给和需求的基本面已经推动油价达到每桶118美元左右，余下的增长源于对伊朗问题的担忧。按照他的说法，如果改善与伊朗的关系，石油价格可能下行几美元，但仍会接近120美元。

　　Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb isthat a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in thefirst year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, whotend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvementselsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects forglobal growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.

　　在全球范围内，价格上涨造成的伤害到目前为止可能还是适度的。有一条经验法则是油价每持续增长10%，全球经济增长率就会下跌0.2%，很大程度上是因为高油价将收入从石油消费者转向生产者，所以生产者往往损失更小。现在几乎可以肯定地说，其他方面的改善完全可以抵消任何冲击，尤其是解决欧元危机。尽管油价高涨，全球经济增长的前景依然好于年初。

　　But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a netimporter which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a $10 increase in oil prices knocks around 0.2% off output in the firstyear and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that iswidely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.