The plan would need to be tweaked to help countries such as Spain, whose public debt is notfar above the 60% limit but is rising sharply and may surge even more if its weak savingsbanks need extra help. Another issue is whether the discipline needed to pay off debt oversuch a long period can be sustained. But the plan should avoid the perverse effects ofBruegel s blue-red proposal. Yields on existing national bonds in a country such asItalythose with maturities extending beyond the transfer period of up to four yearswillbe higher than those issued through the redemption fund, but overall borrowing costs shouldbe reduced as investors see a credible path to debt reduction and fret less about a eurobreak-up.
这一计划还需要做作少许修改,以适应救助西班牙等国的需要。西班牙的公共债务只是略高于60%的上限,但近来上升势头很猛。考虑到该国虚弱的储蓄银行可能需要额外的救助,公共债务还有大幅激增的可能性。另一个要注意的问题是,欧洲债券的偿还需要很长的一段时间,保证还款正常进行的纪律能否得到维持?尽管有以上各种问题,这一计划仍将避免勃鲁盖尔的蓝债券-红债券的弊端。意大利等国发行的债券期限超出了四年的转换期,收益率也会高于那些由偿还基金代发的欧洲债券的收益率。但它们的总借款成本还是会有所下降,这是因为一旦投资者看到债务确实在减少,他们对欧元解体的忧虑便会得到缓解的缘故。
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