A budget tightening plus loose money is the rightway to insure against risks. Britains household debtis among the worlds highest as a share of income;most of it is charged at variable interest rates andthus linked to the borrowing costs set by the Bankof England. Even a small rise in interest rates wouldhurt borrowers, increase bad debts and perhapseven spur fire-sales of homes. A loss of a triple-Abond rating would be more painful for Britain thanfor most countries, because the state stands behindan oversized banking sector. Britain must avoid thespiral that afflicts some euro-zone countries, in which sovereign-debt fears lead to worriesabout bank solvency, raise banks funding costs, slow the economy and hurt tax revenue.
预算削减加上货币宽松是可以规避风险的。英国的占收入部分家庭负债达世界最高水平。他们中的大多数用的是可变利率贷款,这也因此与央行的借贷成本有关系。即使微微调高利率也可能会给借款人造成损失,增加坏账,甚至可能导致借款人变卖房产。若英国失掉AAA主权信用评级,他会比其他国家更惨,因为英国国内庞大的银行机构必须靠国家的良好信用正常运转。英国必须规避像其他一些欧元区国家的风险升级,一旦风险升级,市场对国债的恐慌必将导致其对银行偿债能力的担忧,从而使银行融资成本增加,经济增长受阻,税收压力增加。
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