早熟的调整
The third problem with Asian triumphalism is that it isas Asian leaders well knowpremature.Western consumers remain big contributors to Asian growth. American defence spendingcontinues to dwarf Chinas, and it will be years before that first aircraft-carrier outingtranslates into a serious carrier-group capability. A recent study by the Asian DevelopmentBank projected that, on optimistic assumptions, China would by 2050 account for 22% of theglobal economy, compared with 14% for America . In another plausible, if less rosy,scenario, in which China and India find themselves caught in a middle-income trap, theproportions would be 11% for China, 21% for America and 6% for India. But even on theoptimistic projection, China would still be, per head, less than half as rich as America.
亚洲沾沾自喜的第三个问题是亚洲领袖对此也有自知之明 早熟。西方消费者依旧是亚洲发展的一大来源。美国的国防支出远超中国,而那才首次出航的航母要发展成一个航母集团也需要几年时间。亚洲开发银行新近作的研究表明:乐观点看,到2050年中国在全球的经济份额将占22%,而美国只占14%。另一个不那么美妙但也有可能的版本是:中国和印度陷入中等收入困境,到时中国所占有的比例是11%,美国为21%,印度为6%。但即使是乐观点看,中国的人均富裕度也比不上美国的一半。
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